据报道，今年以来，从人形机器人加快产业化落地，到工业机器人市场继续领跑全球，我国机器人领域基础研发能力迅速提升，市场应用加速拓展。最新数据显示，当前我国工业机器人销量已占全球一半以上，连续10年居世界首位。今年前十个月，工业机器人产量突破35万套；服务机器人产量近644万套，同比增长21.7%。
东吴证券指出，2021年韩国/日本/德国/中国工业机器人密度分别为1000/399/397/322台/万人，我国渗透率仍具备翻倍空间：1）从经济性看，人口老龄化加剧导致人力成本提升，机器替人为大势所趋。2）从政策导向看，2023年1月工信部发布《“机器人+”应用行动实施方案》，目标2025年我国制造业机器人密度较2020年实现翻番。受益机器替人及机器人政策导向，预计2022-2025年我国机器人销量CAGR为14%。
东吴证券认为，在AI大模型趋势下，工程师可通过大模型自动生成代码指令完成机器人功能的开发与调试，用日常对话的方式来指挥机器人。在工业领域内，机器人能够与人类直接对话，加速应用实现及潜在应用领域渗透率飞跃，是未来十年最重要的机会之一。工业机器人产业链中优选强阿尔法，主要有三个思路：（1）上下游全产业链布局，应对可能到来的行业格局分化；（2）国产化率低、壁垒较高的环节：大六轴、汽车3C、焊接；（3）规模持续扩大，有望迎来盈利能力上行。
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According to reports, since the beginning of this year, from the acceleration of the industrialization of humanoid robots to the industrial robot market continues to lead the world, the basic research and development capability of China’s robot field has been rapidly improved, and the market application has accelerated. The latest data show that the current sales of industrial robots in China have accounted for more than half of the world, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years. In the first ten months of this year, the output of industrial robots exceeded 350,000 sets; The output of service robots was nearly 6.44 million sets, up 21.7% year-on-year.
Soochow Securities pointed out that in 2021, the density of industrial robots in South Korea/Japan/Germany/China is 1000/399/397/322 units/million people, and China’s penetration rate still has the space to double: 1) From the economic point of view, the aging population has led to the increase of labor costs, and the machine is the trend of The Times. 2) From the perspective of policy orientation, in January 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Robot +” application action Implementation Plan, with the goal of doubling the density of robots in China’s manufacturing industry by 2025 compared with 2020. Benefiting from machine substitutes and robot policy orientation, it is expected that China’s robot sales CAGR will be 14% in 2022-2025.
Soochow Securities believes that under the trend of AI large models, engineers can automatically generate code instructions through large models to complete the development and debugging of robot functions, and direct robots in daily conversations. In the industrial sector, the ability of robots to speak directly to humans, accelerating the application realization and penetration of potential applications, is one of the most important opportunities in the next decade. There are three main ideas for selecting strong alpha in the industrial robot industry chain: (1) The upstream and downstream whole industry chain layout to cope with the possible coming industry pattern differentiation; (2) Links with low localization rate and high barriers: big six axis, automobile 3C, welding; (3) The scale continues to expand and is expected to usher in upward profitability.
